Bezzecchi is the simplest equation: the Italian in fourth has no choice but to win if he’s to lift the crown, although he has already done that twice in 2020 so it’s far from a long shot. He would also, however, need Bastianini to fail to score – and Lowes and Marini not do much better. Marini, meanwhile, needs at least a second place to hold up his half of his chances, and then also would need to pray for some much worse luck for his rivals. Lowes needs a podium as his minimum, but the Brit also arrives battling injury after his huge FP3 crash in the Valencia GP. So it’s advantage: Bastianini, although anything can still very much happen.
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